Whose Bubble Will Burst?

With less than two weeks until the Green Bay Packers kick off the regular season against the New Orleans Saints on September 8th, it is the time of year where General Manager Ted Thompson and Coach Mike McCarthy are nearing their final cut-downs in reaching the 53-man roster that will hopefully re-punch Green Bay’s ticket to the Super Bowl.

But before those cut-downs take place on September 3rd, it is time to begin speculation on a few of the Packers on the bubble of making this year’s squad.

RB Dmitri Nance, 2nd season, Arizona State

Nance was picked up early in the 2010 season off the Atlanta Falcons’ practice squad after Ryan Grant was placed on injured reserve. He played sparingly in 12 games, rushing 36 times for 95 yards (2.6 average) and catching three passes. Though he was not expected to make the team coming into training camp, Nance has had a very good camp and appears to be the best running back on the current Green Bay roster to fill in the void as a third-down back left by the departure of Brandon Jackson in free agency. Nance’s superior pass blocking and ability to catch screens just might help him make a squad that already features James Starks, Ryan Grant, and third-round pick Alex Green. Do not forget that the Packers will probably only keep one to two fullbacks this season, compared to three in 2010, so an additional roster spot in the backfield is open if needed.

QB Graham Harrell, 1st season, Texas Tech

Harrell was placed on the practice squad last season after signing as an undrafted free agent and was elevated to the 53-man roster for several games after Aaron Rodgers suffered concussion injuries. Harrell has arguably improved the most out of any second-year player and Coach McCarthy, a quarterback guru, must have seen enough last season to justify keeping him around on a team that already features an All-Pro in Rodgers and a top NFL backup in Matt Flynn. With Flynn’s contract up after this season and Matt almost certainly looking for a starting role elsewhere, is Harrell developing enough to become the number two quarterback spot next season? More importantly, if the Packers release him, is there any way they could hope to retain him for the practice squad among other NFL teams searching for a backup quarterback?

WR Chastin West, 1st season, Fresno State

A member of the Green Bay practice squad in 2010, West has impressed coaches and analysts alike with a strong camp and excellent performance last week against the Arizona Cardinals in which he caught five passes for 134 yards, including a 97-yard touchdown reception from Matt Flynn that got his name circulating in the Green Bay community. Last year, the Packers kept five wide receivers – Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Brett Swain – and have added Randall Cobb to the mix via a second-round pick this offseason. Swain has not stood out this preseason and will most likely not make the team, while Cobb is a lock and has looked promising this camp in five receiver sets. West could be a sixth receiver and, with his experience last season, could make the team depending upon whether or not Green Bay sees Jordy Nelson in its future after this season.

TE Andrew Quarless, 2nd season, Penn State

Quarless filled in as a starter for Jermichael Finley last season and had his share of ups and downs in terms of dropped passes, but also made some big catches. What did not seem to be his forte was catching the quick slant patterns that Finley excelled at and is a big part of the Packer offense. There is certainly a learning curve in a rookie season, but it was peculiar when Green Bay drafted two tight ends in the offseason – Ryan Taylor and D.J. Williams. Williams, who has stood out among all rookies in training camp, is a pass-catching tight end in the mold of a better Tory Humphrey of a few years ago. Taylor has shown the potential to be an H-back at some point and is on nearly all of the first team special teams units. With Finley a lock to start, the statuses of Quarless and Tom Crabtree are in doubt. Quarless showed up late to camp after failing his physical and struggled as a blocker last season. Meanwhile, Crabtree was valuable as a run blocker and special teams performer. How many tight ends will the Packers keep? Three, four, five? Though all are talented enough to make the opening day roster, my guess is only four will do so for the Green and Gold.

DB Pat Lee, 4th season, Auburn

The former second-round pick Lee has been injury prone throughout his tenure in Green Bay and is without a doubt in jeopardy of losing his spot on the roster. A fourth cornerback at best the past few seasons, he had a surprisingly solid Super Bowl performance when Charles Woodson and Sam Shields went down with injuries. However, Lee was burned badly against the Cleveland Browns this preseason and he has received competition in camp from Josh Gordy, who recorded a sack and interception against the Browns and was the fourth cornerback against the Cardinals last week. It seems almost certain that Lee will be released, especially since his value as a returner has diminished with Cobb’s emergence in training camp.

Who's the Real Terrelle Pryor?

Make no mistake about it, I'm not going to beat a dead horse on the offseason situation of Terrelle Pryor. What I am going to talk about is how well Pryor can play at the next level at the quarterback position, considering he should be picked in Monday's NFL Supplemental Draft (potentially between rounds 3 and 5).

Pryor might even be more athletic than 2011 #1 overall pick Cam Newton, but has three years of starting experience (and a 31-4 record) to Newton's one; he's also played in a pro style offense. Both are strong runners with big frames, but Pryor measures 6'6, 233 pounds and possesses 4.4 speed and a stiff arm that pummels defenders to the ground to go along with excellent arm strength; he quite possibly could develop into the best NFL quarterback in escaping pressure.

However, questions will always surround Pryor's character, accuracy, and inconsistency. In some games, Pryor will have a tight spiral and throw beautiful passes to open receivers after scanning the field. In some games, he will look to run before anticipating his receivers' routes. His accuracy is the same way. Sometimes the ball is right on the money, but sometimes the throw is forced or thrown into double or triple coverage when he's pressured. Below is analysis from two of Pryor's biggest games in his collegiate career with opposite impressions.


Analyzing the Rose Bowl vs. Oregon


Terrelle Pryor was impressive against the Ducks, who possessed a quality defense. Pryor broke some longer runs on third down and was able to escape pressure and run for the first down several times. But what was most impressive was the way his eyes were downfield before he looked to run. He found open receivers that turned into long gains, whether it was his running back or wide receiver. He did not force throws and made good reads with an incredibly tight spiral 20+ yards downfield. Pryor's decision making single-handedly won the BCS game for the Buckeyes.

Tale of Two Halves


In last year's Sugar Bowl vs. Arkansas, Pryor's game can best be described as a tale of two halves. In the first half, he was nearly unstoppable. He ran for huge gains, threw beautiful passes to the outside of the field, and collected a pair of amazing touchdown passes (15-yard out pass to Dane Sanzenbacher and 43-yard pass to DeVier Posey down the middle of the field). With a 28-10 lead at halftime and Pryor breaking down the Razorback defense, it looked as if OSU was in total control. But in the second half, Pryor began forcing throws and his accuracy suffered. He also struggled to run the ball as Arkansas started to bring the blitz and frustrated him after several failed possessions. Though Ohio State held on to win the ballgame, Pryor's performance left scouts wondering which Pryor they saw that evening.


Final Thoughts

So what do I think? The consistency from game to game just is not there to consider Pryor to be a bonafide potential NFL starter, but his athletic ability and "wow" plays just make you feel like he could develop into something special with a coach who really cares and wants to make him better. About 10 teams scouted Pryor at his pro day, but not all see him as an NFL quarterback. Some believe he could be a wide receiver or tight end with his freakish size and speed, much like Arkansas's Matt Jones a few years ago. I believe Pryor will struggle to be a starting quarterback, but could provide a threat as a 2nd-stringer. I wish I would have been able to see the progression Pryor could have made his senior season, as he had improved his raw quarterback skills each and every year with the Buckeyes. The next chapter of Pryor's career starts tomorrow.

Kellen Moore Scouting Report

Heading into his senior season at Boise State, quarterback Kellen Moore is a Heisman hopeful and one of the most well-known college players around the country. As he attempts to lead the Broncos to a national championship, Moore will also be looking to increase his stock for the 2012 NFL Draft. With that, here is my scouting report on Kellen Moore.

Positives:

• Three-year starter
• Has been highly productive as a passer, throwing for 3,400+ yards all three seasons. Threw for 3,845 yards last season, in addition to 35 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. As a junior in 2009, his numbers were astounding, throwing for 39 TDs to only 3 INTs.
• Has had big games against big competition, throwing for a combined 1,190 yards, 10 TDs, and 1 INT in 2010 against Virginia Tech, Oregon St., Nevada, and the bowl game against Utah.
• Spreads the ball around very well to receivers, tight ends, and backs.
• Good variance playing under center in the I-formation and in shotgun with 4-5 receiver sets.
• One of the most accurate passers in college football, especially when his feet are set and has time to throw. Possesses great touch on short to intermediate throws. Accurate over the middle and can zing it into tight spaces, even on the run.
• Has great awareness of where pass rush is coming from and anticipates receiver breaks. Has decent mobility to escape the rush.
• Has ice in his veins; almost flawless in clutch situations. Has led game-winning drives in big games versus Virginia Tech and Nevada the past two seasons.

Negatives:

• Appears a bit nervous under pressure and has the tendency to force throws into double coverage.
• Has the habit of throwing off of his back foot on occasion and has a mixture of a side arm and over the top delivery.
• Size is an issue (6'0, 190). Can he see the whole field and can his body hold up to hits by NFL lineman?
• Only above average arm strength to make long passes downfield.
• Has faced marginal conference opposition in the WAC.
• Has benefited greatly from his receivers, especially in 2010 with Lions 2nd round pick Titus Young and Rams 3rd rounder Austin Pettis.

Overall:

Moore possesses the ability to develop into a solid pro if he can develop more of a comfortable presence in the pocket under defensive pressure and continue his excellent accuracy.  Size and arm strength will always be questioned, but Moore has shown the leadership and moxy in win or lose situations that cannot be taught. Could really benefit from a year to study the game before being thrust into a starting role and should be a 3rd or 4th round pick who could make a jump to the 2nd round depending on how well he plays this season and whether he can lead Boise St. to a BCS bowl. 

Games to watch: vs. Georgia, Sept. 3 -- vs. Nevada, Oct. 1 -- vs. TCU, Nov. 12

Packers Impressions & Tidbits vs. Arizona

Offense

• The Packers first-team offense was forced to punt on their opening drive and did not attempt a running play during the drive for the second consecutive week. The lack of production and balance on the first series has to be a concern.

• T.J. Lang started the game at left guard over Derek Sherrod, who earned the reps last week. Meanwhile, Sherrod played too upright and gave up a sack to Calais Campbell in the first quarter. Lang is in position to earn the starting nod this season.

• The Packers’ first touchdown of the game, a 20-yard back-shoulder throw from Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings, was nearly an identical play to the first touchdown scored last week. 

• After giving up five sacks a week ago, the offensive line had another rough outing this week. Sherrod, Lang (at offensive tackle), and Josh Sitton each allowed sacks as Aaron Rodgers was not given much time to find open receivers and was hit more than he should have been.

• Jermichael Finley made three straight catches during a mid-second quarter scoring drive in his return to action.

• 3^rd-round pick Alex Green, seeing his first action as a Packer, gained 25 yards on a screen pass right before halftime and finished the drive with a 2-yard rushing touchdown.

• Matt Flynn completed a 97-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Chastin West, who was on the practice squad last season and is on the bubble of making the roster.

Defense

• After being torched last week against the Cleveland Browns, the first-team defense was able to force a three and out on the Cardinals first drive, aided by great pressure from B.J. Raji on third down.

• Without Cullen Jenkins on the defensive line, the Packers’ line has had a hard time pressuring the quarterback, evidenced by the time Kevin Kolb had to throw the ball on third down throughout the first half. Kolb finished with 80 yards on six completions.

• C.J. Wilson got the start at defensive end with Mike Neal’s recent sprained knee injury and tackled Beanie Wells in the backfield for a loss on the Cards’ second drive. However, he appeared to suffer a concussion in the game, hurting the already little depth along the defensive line.

• Defensive coordinator Dom Capers must be concerned with the way his defense allowed Beanie Wells to power his way to 44 yards on 11 carries in the first half. However, Howard Green entered the ballgame late in the second quarter and made several tackles around the line of scrimmage to slow down runners.

• Safety Morgan Burnett showed why he is en route to earning the starting role this season when he made a last second break on the ball and broke up a 30+ yard pass intended for Larry Fitzgerald.

• Defensive back Josh Gordy, who had an interception and sack last week, was used as the fourth cornerback in the first-team dime defense over both Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush. 

• Give this one to Larry Fitzgerald. After a long Cardinal drive on their second possession, he made an incredible diving, 15-yard one-handed catch, cradling the ball between his forearm and facemask in full extension on 3^rd and 23 to put the Cards in position for a Jay Feely field goal.

Special Teams

• Randall Cobb and Alex Green split first half kickoff return duties. Cobb fumbled a punt in the second quarter, while Diondre Borel fumbled the opening second half kickoff.
• Punter Tim Masthay has picked up where he left off at the end of last season. He had two non-returnable punts downed inside the 20 in the first half.
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Cardinals vs. Packers Preview

The Green Bay Packers (0-1) take the field for their home preseason opener Friday night at 7 p.m. (CST) as they take on the Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Lambeau Field. The Packers will be looking to rebound after their 27-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Here are five things to watch for in Friday’s ballgame.

5 – Kevin Kolb

A great year is expected of Kolb, who was traded to Arizona by Philadelphia for stud cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second round pick earlier this offseason. Kolb threw for 68 yards on 4 of 7 passing against Oakland last week, but will be looking for his first passing touchdown against the defending Super Bowl champs to leave a good impression for Cards fans early in the preseason and justify the price Arizona paid to bring him to Phoenix.

4 – Daryn Colledge Returns to Green Bay

Green Bay allowed Daryn Colledge to depart in free agency after starting at left guard for the Packers over the course of five seasons and helping them earn a Super Bowl title. Now, Colledge will be filling the hole left by Alan Faneca at guard on the Arizona interior. Though starters will probably only play the first half at the most, look for Colledge to show a mean streak against his former team.

3 – Battle at Left Guard

After letting Colledge walk, the Packers have been forced to find a replacement at left guard. In training camp, first round pick Derek Sherrod earned many of the repetitions with the first-team offense, even though he had no prior experience at guard and was drafted as a tackle. However, in the first preseason game, Sherrod split snaps with third-year pro T.J. Lang. Though Lang will receive the starting nod Friday evening, look for both players to share snaps again this week in their battle for the starting position.

2 – Gordy’s Play at Corner

After intercepting a pass against the Cleveland Browns last week, second-year pro Josh Gordy aided his cause to earn a roster spot in the secondary this season. Gordy spent most of last season on the Packers’ practice squad before being promoted to the 53-man roster in December and, at 5’11, has the size to be effective in Green Bay’s coverage schemes. A strong training camp has put Gordy in position to take Pat Lee’s spot after the injury-prone reserve has failed to live up to his billing as a second-round pick. Gordy will have his chance to shine in the second half again this week.

1 – Defensive Secondary

The first-team Packer defense struggled mightily against the Browns last week, allowing quarterback Colt McCoy to throw for 135 yards and a touchdown on 9 of 10 passing. The Browns offense also marched 71 yards on 8 plays in the opening drive.  The secondary looked out of place throughout the first half without Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields, who sat out due to injury precautions, while starting safety Morgan Burnett, coming off of a torn ACL last season, and last year’s fill-in Charlie Peprah each allowed big completions over the middle and will need to cut down on their mistakes this week against Kevin Kolb.

Packer Preseason Game #1

Here are some observations from the first Packers preseason game, a 27-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

CB Josh Gordy is going to give Pat Lee a run for his roster spot this preseason. Gordy played well against the Browns and recorded a second half interception, while Lee and Jarrett Bush were routinely burned in coverage against Colt McCoy and the first team Cleveland offense.

After a very discouraging first drive, the first team offense put together a spectacular drive, culminated by a back shoulder 21-yard touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings. James Starks showed power and burst on the drive, while Ryan Grant seemed a little slow out of the gate after missing all but one game last season due to injury.

Matt Flynn led a two minute drill at the end of the first half that resulted in points when he connected with Spencer Havner on a 3-yard pass that was deflected into his hands. Flynn finished 11 of 18 for 126 yards and I think he will flourish in a starting role elsewhere next season.

Rookie receiver Randall Cobb led the team with 3 catches for 60 yards, including a 28-yard reception that stretched the middle of the field. Cobb also flourished in the return game during his first pro action, with a 29.0-yard average on two kick returns including a 32-yard return. You have the feeling Cobb will make an impact his first season.

Playing with a sprained ankle, newly re-signed kicker Mason Crosby knocked home a 31-yard field goal right down the middle on his only attempt of the night.

Packer Training Camp

I had the opportunity to attend a Packer practice last Thursday night for the first time since I was a wee little child (7-9 years old). Some observations:


Randall Cobb may be having a big training camp as a returner and route runner, but he had two drops and ran the wrong route on one occasion during passing drills. However, it is understandable since he is a young player and is still digesting a large NFL playbook.

Jermichael Finley reportedly has lost 10 pounds this offseason and he looks the part. He is a lean, athletic machine. If he is still big enough to hold blocks, he will be even more of a matchup nightmare in the passing game this season.

Whether or not he did or didn't, Josh Sitton also looks like he has lost considerable weight this offseason and will be looking to improve upon a Pro-Bowl caliber 2010 season.

With Chad Clifton nursing an injury, Marshall Newhouse earned reps at left tackle. Last year's 5th round pick made big improvements last season and has found himself in a key backup role. This year's first rounder Derek Sherrod lined up as the starting left guard, even though he has not played guard before and was drafted as a tackle of the future. One thing's for sure: you can never have enough solid lineman on your roster.

Matt Flynn impressed me with his accuracy in the passing drills (especially out patterns) and during quarterback agility drills. Looks the part of a starter in the coming seasons and is a free agent after this season.

Meanwhile, 3rd-string quarterback Graham Harrell was picked up as an undrafted free agent last season and looked impressive. Reporters raved about the strides he made during the season last year and Harrell showed his own agility skills during practice and decent accuracy, even though he threw too high to a receiver a few times.

Alex Green looks like a tough between the tackles runner with the ability to get to the outside. He has also been tried in the return game.