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Back in 2009, Mel Kiper predicted that USC QB Matt Barkley (coming in as a freshman at the time) would be the 1st overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Fast forward 3 years and Barkley has put together two solid seasons as starter for the Trojans. This past year, he managed to slightly improve several passing statistics, putting up 2,791 yards through the air (2,735 in 2010) with a 62.6% (59.9% in 2010) completion percentage. But the statistic that jumps out from year one to year two is his TD to INT ratio. Barkley improved from 15:14 to 26:12 over the course of a year.
There is little doubt he is beginning to reach the lofty height as the #1 overall prospect in the 2009 recruiting class, but he has only scratched the surface of his potential and is already being compared to Ben Roethlisberger in the way he can make plays outside the pocket and is cool under pressure. However, he is more athletic than Roethlisberger with more speed, though he is not a burner. He also possesses outstanding arm strength and accuracy. The aspect of Barkley's passing that can be criticized is the way he throws off his back foot and almost in a jumping form on many of his passes. Nevertheless, he is accurate and finds a way to complete them.
Barkley, however, is currently the underdog to be the top pick this coming year because of the play of Andrew Luck, a redshirt junior who was the 7th best QB in his recruiting class back in 2008. Luck is the son of Oliver Luck, who played quarterback for the Houston Oilers. Andrew's intangibles are what separates him from Barkley at this point. He displays the ability to outsmart defenses and call audibles at the line of scrimmage based on what he sees that most other collegiate quarterbacks do not do (comparable to Peyton Manning). Luck burst onto the scene as a freshman, passing for 2,575 yards, 13 TDs, and 4 INTs with a 56.3% completion percentage.
But he drastically improved his statistics in his sophomore season this past year when he threw for 3,338 yards on a completion percentage of 70.7. His TD to INT ratio was an incredible 32:8 as he helped Stanford to a BCS Bowl victory and became a Heisman Trophy contender. Luck can scramble a bit (with power - check his hit on Shareece Wright), has excellent accuracy, and possesses good enough arm strength to become a perennial Pro Bowl QB and perhaps even one of the best all time if he can continue his success this season without his coach Jim Harbaugh and three of his starting offensive lineman from last season.
Whichever quarterback becomes the first overall pick, both rank ahead of every quarterback in this past year's draft, with the exception of Cam Newton, whose athleticism could make him a freak at the QB position and make him a dangerous weapon ranking right up there with this year's draft class. I firmly believe that all of the teams that picked one of the average QBs in this past year's draft in the top two rounds will regret their decisions when they have a terrible record again and have the option of landing a future Pro Bowl talent in either Luck or Barkley.
