Let the Barkley-Luck Debate Begin

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Back in 2009, Mel Kiper predicted that USC QB Matt Barkley (coming in as a freshman at the time) would be the 1st overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Fast forward 3 years and Barkley has put together two solid seasons as starter for the Trojans. This past year, he managed to slightly improve several passing statistics, putting up 2,791 yards through the air (2,735 in 2010) with a 62.6% (59.9% in 2010) completion percentage. But the statistic that jumps out from year one to year two is his TD to INT ratio. Barkley improved from 15:14 to 26:12 over the course of a year.

There is little doubt he is beginning to reach the lofty height as the #1 overall prospect in the 2009 recruiting class, but he has only scratched the surface of his potential and is already being compared to Ben Roethlisberger in the way he can make plays outside the pocket and is cool under pressure. However, he is more athletic than Roethlisberger with more speed, though he is not a burner. He also possesses outstanding arm strength and accuracy. The aspect of Barkley's passing that can be criticized is the way he throws off his back foot and almost in a jumping form on many of his passes. Nevertheless, he is accurate and finds a way to complete them.

Barkley, however, is currently the underdog to be the top pick this coming year because of the play of Andrew Luck, a redshirt junior who was the 7th best QB in his recruiting class back in 2008. Luck is the son of Oliver Luck, who played quarterback for the Houston Oilers. Andrew's intangibles are what separates him from Barkley at this point. He displays the ability to outsmart defenses and call audibles at the line of scrimmage based on what he sees that most other collegiate quarterbacks do not do (comparable to Peyton Manning). Luck burst onto the scene as a freshman, passing for 2,575 yards, 13 TDs, and 4 INTs with a 56.3% completion percentage.

But he drastically improved his statistics in his sophomore season this past year when he threw for 3,338 yards on a completion percentage of 70.7. His TD to INT ratio was an incredible 32:8 as he helped Stanford to a BCS Bowl victory and became a Heisman Trophy contender.  Luck can scramble a bit (with power - check his hit on Shareece Wright), has excellent accuracy, and possesses good enough arm strength to become a perennial Pro Bowl QB and perhaps even one of the best all time if he can continue his success this season without his coach Jim Harbaugh and three of his starting offensive lineman from last season.

Whichever quarterback becomes the first overall pick, both rank ahead of every quarterback in this past year's draft, with the exception of Cam Newton, whose athleticism could make him a freak at the QB position and make him a dangerous weapon ranking right up there with this year's draft class. I firmly believe that all of the teams that picked one of the average QBs in this past year's draft in the top two rounds will regret their decisions when they have a terrible record again and have the option of landing a future Pro Bowl talent in either Luck or Barkley.

Round 2 &3 Packer Picks

With their first pick, the Pack selected WR Randall Cobb of Kentucky. He's a 5'10, 195-pound player who has done it all - catch, throw, run, and return at Kentucky and is comfortable playing out of the slot. Green Bay wanted to go out and get a guy who could return kicks and it looks like they've done that. I'm not exactly sure how Cobb fits into the Packers offensive system, but I'm sure Ted Thompson has a plan on how to use his versatility.

With their last pick, Green Bay took RB Alex Green of Hawaii. Though it's hard to read how he will do in the pros because of the spread offense in which they ran, but he appears to have the speed (4.53) to go with his 6'0, 225-pound frame. He also has WR-type hands out of the backfield and supposedly has experience returning kicks. Tall, upright runner comparable to what the Packers have in Ryan Grant and James Starks, will this spell the end for Grant, who is a free agent next season, or Brandon Jackson, who is a free agent this year.

Second Round Thoughts

The Green Bay Packers next selection will be at #64 in the second round. Positions that could be addressed include a 3-4 DE and OLB, OG, WR, and CB.

Surprisingly, Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers is still on the board, after being thought of as a top 2 pick earlier this draft season. His knee concerns must be significant.

I like Oregon St.'s DT Stephen Paea, who might project as a 3-4 end. I don't know if he will be available when the Packers pick in the second round, but he would be a quality pick with excellent strength and a great work ethic. ... Of course, there's Arizona's Brooks Reed still out there, as well as TCU's QB Andy Dalton who should be quickly off the board in Round 2.

Packers Select OT Derek Sherrod with 1st Round Pick

The Green Bay Packers stayed right at #32 and landed a first round talent in OT Derek Sherrod of Mississippi St. The 6'5, 321 pound lineman should bring quality depth to the OT position that was needed, as Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are aging.

Sherrod has good size, is quick (5.28 40-yard dash), has great footwork, is a great pass protector, and shows the ability to be an effective driving run blocker that can get to the second level of linebackers fairly well. Scouts believe he needs to improve his lower-body strength and play less tall at times, in addition to needing more of a mean streak in the running game.

However, with first rounder Bryan Bulaga last year, the Pack seemingly is set for the future at the tackle position. Sherrod's value was right where Green Bay selected him and is a safe pick, giving the Packers a great start to the 2011 NFL Draft. Green Bay's next pick is at #64 of the second round.

ESPN Report on Patriots

An ESPN reporter said earlier this morning that the Patriots will not target Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, or Muhammad Wilkerson at pick #17 for their 3-4 need at end, nor will they pick Robert Quinn if available. It is more likely they target an OT like Anthony Castonzo or DT Corey Liuget.

Updated Mock Draft as of April 26th

One more mock to go, but here is where I stand two days before the draft. Follow this link to view it: http://nfldraftbuzz.blogspot.com/p/mock-drafts.html

Might be surprising to see who the Packers pick, but just remember that they pick the best player available on their chart and he could be the type of player, who in the cold, could be what they need.

2011 Quarterbacks: Who are the Real 1st Rounders?

In this year's NFL Draft, there are many names of quarterbacks that have recently shot up draft boards. Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton have been the big ones - both thought to be within the first 5 picks and Newton supposedly the Panthers frontrunner with the first pick. However, new names have crept onto the scene as of late.

There is Christian Ponder of Florida State, who has shown me the ability to read defenses, step up and run when pressured out of the pocket, and also enough accuracy and arm strength to get the ball down the field. The thing that worries me is his lack of a big name until draft season and the Senior Bowl, which he lit up. He might need a year to adjust to an NFL playbook, needs to fix some footwork, and could improve his decision making, but in time should become a solid pick. However, I feel he is a second rounder.



Washington's Jake Locker can run and his football intelligence is there, along with decent arm strength. However, his accuracy is a huge issue and he is actually more accurate when rolling out, which is not typical. In 2 games against Nebraska, Locker struggled to complete even a third of his passes and that was against a defense that boasted 2 of the better cover corners in the nation. He could've been last year's #1 pick, but instead I see him slipping until at least #12 to the Vikings and will still need a year or two to completely become a starting NFL quarterback. Boom or bust potential.


Next is Ryan Mallett of Arkansas, a transfer from Michigan. Mallett impresses with his arm strength and for rejuvenating a Razorback team that was falling apart until he took the starting role. Many things scare me with Mallett and they aren't involved with the drug-related issues and immaturity usually talked about by the media. He is terribly inaccurate on the run and his decision making, especially in crucial moments of the game, can be questioned many times. No doubt he is a gun-slinger, but he is not mobile and could have used another year in school, as he will need at least half a year to adjust to NFL defenses. Another mid-second round pick grade.



Nevada's Colin Kaepernick is unknown to many. He is a scrambler, but also has a decent arm and can fling it down the field and with decent accuracy. How well he will adjust to the pro game coming from a shotgun offense remains to be seen, but his ability to not let the pressure of the big stage get to him (win against Boise St.), gives you a feeling that Kaepernick could become a decent starter. I think he's more of a second rounder, though, and wouldn't take him in the first.



Finally, TCU's Andy Dalton has recently been one of the biggest risers. Though I see him as a early second round pick, Dalton benefited from TCU's great season and really has no standout trait. He is not overly accurate, has only good arm strength, and has decent mobility. Surely Dalton can become a quality game managing quarterback, but when you consider drafting a quarterback in the first 3 rounds, you have to be sure, you are getting a 5-6 year starter. I'm not sure Dalton is that guy.

So, overall, I can only see Gabbert and Newton going in Round 1. There are no guarantees with either, as I see both needing more than a year to get a feel for the game. After all is said and done, Gabbert, in my eyes, will be a bust and may show you things from time to time, but will not be the perennial Pro Bowler you are led to believe. Newton, on the other hand, could transform the QB position and become one of the league's most difficult players to defend if he can be consistent as a passer.